As we move deeper into late October, tensions throughout the Persian Gulf have arrived at a critical juncture, and headlines across Western nations are dominated by discussions of US and Israeli strikes along with reports that Iran has been testing ballistic missiles in its central and western provinces. Even so, the reality on the ground involves far more than what is immediately apparent at first glance.
Nevertheless, if we step back and look at the bigger picture, we can observe how the overall landscape has shifted and how Iran’s military strategy has transitioned toward an asymmetric approach, with the traditional strategic framework having collapsed entirely. Below are several important lessons we can draw from this.
The Daily Missile Tests Represent Only the Tip of the Iceberg.
In recent days, the Iranian military has been carrying out missile tests on a daily basis in provinces including Mashhad, Qazvin and Yas. Yet this is merely the tip of the iceberg. Beneath the surface, the Iranian military has established an extensive infrastructure in order to prepare for a prolonged and heavy bombardment.
Even before any attacks commenced, substantial military infrastructure and state assets were relocated underground. Iranian media recently offered us a glimpse of this new infrastructure, revealing a vast underground factory where the Iranian army manufactures its long-range Arash drones. This indicates that missiles, missile production facilities and command centres are all concealed deep beneath the ground. Consequently, it becomes impossible for any counterforce attacks to be carried out.
As is evident, Iran possesses a distinct asymmetric advantage. Whereas the West and regional states are depleting their air defences (as shown by Saudi Arabia’s ongoing inability to intercept inexpensive Yemeni drones and missiles), Iran has an essentially limitless supply of low-cost drones and missiles. Since there are no longer any genuine military targets above ground, adversaries find themselves confronting a dilemma. They must either attempt to do nothing and accept defeat in the war, or else take cheap shots at soft targets.
“Iran have been developing a lot of underground assets... the Iranian media show this huge underground factory where the army makes their drones... this is just giving you an indication of how prepared the Iranians are.”
Any escalation is going to unfold rapidly, and that includes the cutting of underwater internet cables.
Iran does not intend to escalate the situation gradually in a tit-for-tat exchange. In the event of a large-scale attack, they plan to climb the escalation ladder as rapidly as they possibly can. What this means is that they will create shock-and-awe-style situations in order to alter the cost-benefit analysis for Washington and Tel Aviv. We reported this really early on.
Iran’s Chokehold on Global Internet
Iran is now considering imposing strict new rules on major technology firms which use underwater Internet lines in its waters. According to local reports, companies such as Google and Meta would be forced to acquire licenses, submit to technical inspections and pay specific sovereignty fees. As the Strait of Hormuz serves as a key digital bridge which h…
Their plan is to escalate in the following ways:
Expanded Co-Belligerents: All of the Persian Gulf monarchies, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain, along with regional countries such as Jordan, are now regarded as co-belligerents. The reason for this is that the fuel tankers supplying US and Israeli fighter jets all come from the Gulf family dictators. As a result, they cannot claim to be neutral.
Blocking Supplies From The Strait Of Hormuz: Beyond driving the paper prices of crude oil up significantly, Iran is blocking supplies of diesel, jet fuel and gasoline. They are also blocking non-oil commodities, including Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), sulphur, helium, petrochemicals and fertilisers.
Underwater Internet Cables: Iran has contingency plans in place to cut underwater internet cables. This would have a catastrophic effect on Western finance and the internet.
Attacking Key Energy Pipelines to Israel: Military analysts have noted that Iran has targeting plans aimed at cutting the energy pipelines that are key to Israel. For example, the pipeline that supplies oil from Azerbaijan.
By attacking energy supplies and key regional hubs, Iran aims to bring about a huge global depression. With the collapse of the global market, it becomes unsustainable to maintain the extensive infrastructure of US power projection, which includes 850 military bases.
“This time around... they’re going to escalate far more quickly... they’re going to move up the escalation ladder really fast... they’ve said they’re going to take decisive actions and shock the Americans.”
Iran Refuses To Export Their Enriched Uranium.
When it comes to nuclear negotiations, Iran and the West remain deadlocked, with neither side willing to move. The US have been insisting that Iran export or transfer their 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium to another country, but Iran has firmly drawn a line in the sand on this point.
Iran refuses to export their enriched uranium. They also refuse to negotiate any changes to their nuclear programme or to give anything up until the US has fully met their base requirements in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and lifted all sanctions. They could potentially consider diluting the uranium during the second round of comprehensive negotiations; however, they will not export or dilute it at this stage.
This is a clever move on their part. It places the US in a difficult position. The US must either honour their previous commitments and remove all sanctions, or face an unmitigated war in the region.
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Despite decades of maximum pressure sanctions, Iran have now officially entered a war economy.
Full Forex Reserves: The governor of Iran’s Central Bank has said it holds full forex reserves. They possess enough hard currency, gold and forex reserves to fund military operations and the state for 2.5 years.
Hurting Regional Countries: The US has caused enormous economic damage to countries across the region. For example, they forced Pakistan to stop importing Iranian Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). Since Pakistan rely on Iranian LPG for over 50% of their fuel needs, this leaves them in a vulnerable position. The same thing happens with Iraq.
Long-Term Planning: Ayatollah Khamenei planned for a confrontation with the US. They have therefore set aside liquid money and focused instead on developing cheap drones and missiles.
While Iran doesn’t have a large defence budget compared to other regional countries, it has decades of self-sufficiency, meaning it cannot be cut off from supply chains. What this indicates is that they are capable of enduring an economic siege that stretches over a long period of time.
Iran Views This As A War Between The Epstein Class And Humanity.
Every time a conflict arises in the Middle East, the West tends to rely on the narrative of a war between civilisations. They claim that they are fighting to safeguard Judeo-Christian values against Islamic countries. Yet Iranian strategists interpret this as a ploy designed to conceal their imperialist agenda and their corrupt government.
We can observe that this has collapsed, given how openly people are now discussing the taking of people’s lives. Well-known Western media personalities on the social media platform X are openly issuing calls for the assassination of foreign analysts (such as a news editor for Tablet Magazine). Other accounts are attempting to collect $1,000,000 to kidnap people in public. This shows that they are no longer being held back and that they intend to inflict the maximum amount of damage. Nevertheless, Iran’s intellectuals do not regard this as a religious or cultural conflict. They regard it as a war between the general population of the West (who are overwhelmingly opposed to war and genocide) and the Western elite.
They refer to this group as the Epstein class. They constitute a political and financial oligarchy that operates beyond the reach of any international laws or ethics. What this means is that Iran is able to reframe the conflict as a war between ideologies rather than a war between civilisations. They state that they are fighting against the global oligarchy.
“I don’t think people in the West see this as a civilisation war... they see this as a war between the Epstein class, the oligarchy and the rest of humanity.”
The situation in the Persian Gulf has escalated to a point that goes beyond diplomacy. Iran has fortified its military beneath the surface, built up a long-term war economy, and made plans for rapid escalation that would cause disruption to global energy, underwater internet, and regional proxy situations. They are likewise drawing closer to the East by concluding agreements with nations such as China and Russia, operating direct flights, and taking part in groupings like BRICS and the Global Governance Forum.
Because the US keeps pursuing its maximum pressure policy and is threatening military action, they are leaving itself with less and less margin for error. Rather than containing Iran, Western countries may in fact be triggering a major shock across the region.
Iran, in the meantime, is fully securing its economy and defence against a long-term war, as sanctions and threats force it to do so. Is the Western maximum pressure policy actually containing Iran, or is it creating instability in global markets?
